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D-Day: Lessons from THE GREATEST Project of the XX Century

I recently finished Stephen E. Ambrose´s book “D-Day. The Climatic Battle of World War II”, a historical 600 pages masterpiece presenting the Allied perspective of what has been described as the most important day of the XX century. I also read “D-Day from German´s Eyes”, by Holger Eckhertz, which in turn provides insight from the much less publicized German perspective. After digesting both books and some interesting online documentaries (see some samples below), allow me to share with you, kind reader, some lessons learned from the Project Management perspective. And these are indeed lessons, worth to be stated, extracted from perhaps the most complex & crucial planning effort of modern times. Here we go:

Number 10: make the plan proportionate to the project.

D-Day was massive. No, I really mean it – epic, colossal, humongous, huge by all standards. Let´s check some figures: circa 160.000 Allied troops involved, storming nearly 60km of coast. Almost 7,000 ships and vessels of all type and about 2,400 aircraft; not counting gliders, tanks, trucks, jeeps and other vehicles. It is still the biggest amphibious operation of all times, a behemoth of a project. It has also one of the most bizarre Planning-to-Execution duration ratios, with about two years of Planning efforts vs a couple days of actual Execution. This context demanded a plan according to the situation. And what a plan was created. The level of granularity was astounding: massive hoax operations (“Operation Fortitude”), attack exercises and simulations, logistics to shelter, feed and train hundreds of thousands of individuals, intelligence efforts, en-masse fabrication efforts, weather analysis and forecast, enemy surveillance, attack itineraries planned to the minute and hundreds of other factors all meshed together into a gargantuan plan. Referring to solely the operation plan for his regiment, a colonel is recorded to have said “It was thicker than the biggest telephone book you have seen”. Yes, big & important projects demand big plans. Small projects usually do not demand such exercises, and then small improvements, routine changes, near-task sizes need easy stuff. The plan must raise to the need – that is the point.

Number 9: the plan is useless, still, planning is indispensable

On June 6, 1944 nearly everything that could go wrong for the Allied Forces went wrong. The weather was bad, affecting the actual approximation to the shore. Then, with the noticeable exception of the low-altitude B-26 “Marauders” aircraft, the most powerful air bombing (through B17s and other high altitude aircrafts) was a fiasco. The sky was cloudy, it was still dark and flying at 20,000 feet, pilots had no real idea of their precise location. Thousands of tons of explosives were wasted, destroying nothing but cattle and green fields. Another example? Rockets fired by the assaulting amphibious ships almost never hit the target. Then the gliders, supposed to provision thousands of tons of equipment and men failed miserably: The cause? Normandy´s hedgehogs were much higher and sturdy than English ones, making the landing a suicide. This sole factor almost caused the entire operation to jeopardize. The list goes on. Still, “In preparing for battle, I have always found plans are useless but planning is indispensable”. The author is no other but the Supreme Allied Commander himself, Dwight D. Eisenhower. This statement holds true: despite all these failures, the planning exercise made Operation Overlord a success at the end. Months of preparation created a level of awareness and perspective that allowed the troops to identify new factors and adapt as per the real circumstances. Take for example the mess made with the paratroopers. Very few men, less say regiments, landed were intended. Still, their knowledge of Normandy´s geography and their laser-focus on their goals allowed them to adapt, re-organize and cut Nazi´s supply lines. The plan can fail – but we must be aware of the circumstances.

Number 8: you need line-of-sight, you can´t control what you don´t measure

A not much-known detail about the attack is that the high command (Eisenhower, Bradley, Montgomery, Smith, etc.) and even medium rank officers were mostly blind on June 6th. The fact that the operation was launched before dawn, the bad weather and mostly the enormous amount of smoke, ashes and flying debris of all sizes & types made the coast line virtually invisible from the vessels. Tons of bombs from the bombers but mainly the ulterior navy attack with massive cannons (eg, 400mm and bigger) plus thousands of rockets launched from the lighter disembark vessels created a virtual curtain. Let me quote Ambrose book yet again: “It was most galling and depressing,” Commander W.J. Marshall of the destroyer Satterlee wrote in his action report, “to lie idly a few hundred yards off the beaches and watch our troops, tanks, landing boats, and motor vehicles being heavily shelled and not be able to fire a shot to help them just because we had no information as to what to shoot at and were unable to detect the source of enemy fire.” Furthermore, most of the primitive communication gear of the time broke up during the landing, allowing no communication from the troops at the beaches to the fleet – with some noticeable exceptions. At the end, the Navy played a primordial role, heavily bombing Nazi positions, but it took hours for decisions to be made, and for the required accuracy to be met. Let´s try by all means not to fire our cannons to invisible targets.

Number 7: don´t put all your eggs in the same basket

When I was reading the books, I came to the (general & raw) conclusion that D-Day success came mainly through a combination of plain brute force (massive numbers of everything) but mainly idiotic errors from the enemy. An idea struck my head: what if the invasion failed? What was “plan B” in case the Atlantic Wall couldn´t be breached? Well, as per historic records, there was no backup landing plan. Thus, the plan was to storm kilometers of coast, intending to make a breach somewhere and then work it from there. But the main backup was surprising: a nuclear bombing to Berlin was under consideration in case all efforts failed. Luckily, there was no need for that ultimate resource.

Number 6: don´t confuse a “how” with a “what”

Hitler, Roemmel and Co. made a supreme mistake when planning for the invasion: they – and particularly Roemmel – envisioned that the sole way to protect “Fortress Europe” (the propaganda name for the conquered Europe by the Nazis) was to construct literally a wall around it, particularly on the Atlantic coast close to the UK islands. This was a major mistake: it was Germany itself the one who proved that wars have changed forever. Fast mobility, logistics, blitzkrieg, aviation – those were the factors that had put Europe in their hands. Still, when taking a defensive position, they went back to WW I or even Middle Ages approaches, envision the Atlantic as a moat with a castle behind. If (and what an if that is) they would have put their energy not in pouring millions of tons of concrete right on the coast but in constructing more Panzers, more bridges, more secret fortifications the D-Day story could have been different. Moreover, the reconstruction of their air force would have been another good call, not to mention to station the bulk of their troops a little farther from the coast, beyond the Navy´s “columbiads”. Perhaps this would not have changed the end result of the war, but it would have altered the outcome of D-Day and provided them with time to improve and massively deploy their futuristic new weapons: V2 rockets and the impressive Messerschmitt Me 262 plus the Arado Ar 234, the first ever jet fighter and bomber. Those would have been true game changers. The lesson learned is evident: they needed to secure Europe, not to build a wall. Its a very different objective: never confuse a “how” with a “what”, with a final goal.

Number 5: there is no perfect timing – you have to take risks

On June 4th, 1944, Commander Eisenhower asked to the Supreme Headquarters Allied Expeditionary Force committee a question. He said: “Do you see any reason for not going Tuesday?”. Montgomery replied: “I would say – Go!”. Eisenhower continued walking, chin to the chest. “The question is… how long can you hang this operation on the end of a limb and let it hang there?”. Some minutes later, after more thought, he said: “I am quite positive that the order must be given”. The fleet was immediately deployed for the assault. He had to confirm again the attack next day as per the bad weather affecting the region. When reading the history, I just cant avoid feeling pity for the Supreme Commander. There was just so much at stake. It was perhaps the single most important decision of the century, and there were nothing but gray clouds around – literally and metaphorically. Will the weather get worse and sink the landing gear? Will the bombardment help enough the troops? How will the Nazis and their Panzer divisions react to the attack? Uncertainty was the word of the day. Still, a call had to be made, and he made the right one. Operation Overlord was too big and important to keep it on hold any longer. The troops were impatient and tired of the delay. Logistics were close to impossible. And each day the attack was delayed was an additional day granted for the Nazis to prepare their defenses. Risks have to be taken – calculated risks indeed, but calls and actions are a must.

Number 4: tools & tech help!

Have you heard about a Higgins boat? What about Hobart´s funnies? Well, these and many other were vehicles and gadgets crafted for that climatic day. A Higgins boat (more properly, an LCVP for Landing Craft, Vehicle and Personnel) was exactly that: a light landing vessel designed to ferry an entire platoon to the coast. Hobart´s funnies were tanks and similar powerful vehicles modified in crazy ways. There was the “Crocodile”, a tank with the cannon replaced with a massive flamethrower, the ARK, half tank, half bridge, the Crab, which had an enormous rotating cylinder on front with chains, designed to safely trigger mines. Then DD tanks (floating tanks – believe it or not) and many many other. These vehicles proved to be of true value to the troops, facilitating the excruciating task of seizing the beach. Technology helps indeed, when it is up to the task: right tool for the right job.

Number 3: adapt to survive

Reading the personal stories of the troops, it is utterly evident the level of a mess they were in. It is said that in war, each man fights its own battle, but this was never so true as in June 6th, 1944. Chaos was everywhere: paratroopers were dropped at night and got dispersed over kilometers. Tides sent troops and vehicles randomly. Enemy fire put everyone on cover. Air Force bombardment was a big fail. Still, the job was done, by adaptation means: agility at its best. The troops assembled under new leads (the close ones!), the available weapons were used, routes were changed, the brief available information was used to brilliant extremes. Teams were empowered and had the major goals clear, this allowed them to keep focused and save the day.

Number 2: use the right skills for the right job

A big factor in the success of the Allies was not only the general training of the troops, but the specialization in tasks: the assignment of the correct staff to the correct job. A good example was the exemplary performance of the 2nd Division Rangers to Omaha Beach – the 7th circle of hell during that day. These guys were the best of the best, and they proved their expertise and particularly, their motivation and stamina. These were volunteers, true patriots serving the free world while risking their lives at their own will. And they did the impossible: they climbed an almost vertical cliff under heavy fire and then secured the positions for the rest of the troops. This is in utmost contrast to the performance of the so-called Oost battalions: conscripts from all over Europe, men forced to work for the Axis cause. Most of them preferred to surrender at the first opportunity, and some even rebelled against the Germans. The lesson is clear: right skills for the right job, let´s devote the right time to allocate our resources to the tasks.

Number 1: TRUST – the troops are the ones who do the real job.

At the end, when the final “go” was given, and walking slowly toward his car after seeing the bombers depart, Supreme Commander Dwight D. Eisenhower simply said “Well, it´s on”. The interesting thing to notice is that, from the moment the orders to proceed with the assault were given, he was basically a spectator. He had empowered his Navy, Air Force and Army commanders, all through the line of command – to proceed as per their best criteria. He had led the planning effort, and made the final call. But it was now a matter of trust. Perhaps that is the most important lesson that we must learn: let the troops do their job – we got to trust them. Once the plan is ready, staff is trained, tools and systems are loaded, its on the tsoldiers, the technicians, the engineers, the developers, the staff – at the end, they are the ones doing the job. Tools, procedures, technology are good, but at the end people make things happen, they make the difference. Thus, TRUST.

“In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing.”

Theodore “Teddy” Roosevelt

To finish, a powerful “extra” lesson – and free of charge 🙂 Good ol´ Teddy Roosevelt, uncle of Franklin D. Roosevelt (coincidently, US President during most of WWII) put it in crystal-clear terms, as follows: “In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing.”. In other words, the worst decision is indecision. And that was if not the greatest perhaps the most evident mistake made by the Führer right after the beaches of Normandy were attacked. Believe it or not, after Hitler was debriefed about the situation, and having plenty of the powerful Panzer divisions – terror of the Allied forces all through the war – within hours of the invasion area in Normandy, he never ordered a counterattack. As a matter of fact, he had one of his infamous tantrums and then took a powerful sleep-pill, thus going for a long nap. No attack, no regroup, no location shift, no camouflaging, no preparation… not even a retreat. Nada. Why? Its inexplicable. Possibly he was hijacked by his emotions & temper (another lesson per-se!). What we can say now, nearly 80 years after, is that it he really blew it. Let´s learn from one of the major bloopers in war history: make your call – and make it on a timely basis; a mediocre resolution on due- time is better than a “perfect one” that comes late.

Good luck in your projects, or better-said, “V” for Victory as Churchill waved – cheers!

Fernando

Photo by Museums Victoria on Unsplash

¡1er Libro publicado! / 1st Book Published!

VERSION EN ESPAÑOL / ENGLISH VERSION BELOW

Un proyecto intelectual satisfactoriamente cumplido. Eso es “Veinte Mil Leguas de Viaje Subversivo“, un pequeño libro de cuentos los cuales, al leerse linealmente de principio a fin, conforman una novela corta que navega entre la angustia, el humor negro y un final esperanzador. La obra puede leerse también de manera aleatoria, disfrutando los cuentos separadamente.

Con mucha satisfacción, les comparto entonces mi debut formal en la ficción literaria.

Como un “plus” para los seguidores de este blog, comparto abajo el primero de los cuentos llamado “Partida”, invitándolos a adquirir “Veinte Mil Leguas de Viaje Subversivo” y embarcarse a la aventura con nuestro protagonista.

Disponible tanto en versión e-book como en papel, en Amazon.

Un abrazo,

Fernando

ENGLISH VERSION / VERSION EN ESPAÑOL ARRIBA

A successful intellectual project. That is my debut book entitled “Veinte Mil Leguas de Viaje Subversivo” (untranslatable words game in Spanish of the classic title “Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea” by Jules Verne. A free translation attempt of the new book title is akin to “Twenty Thousands League of Subversive Journeys”).

This is a book of short stories that, when read linearly from the beginning, work as a small novel, but the stories can also be enjoyed randomly. Dark humor, existentialism and an ending filled with hope are part of the story.

As a perk to this blog followers, below a transcript of the first story (in Spanish – the book is written in my native tongue), inviting you to move aboard with our hero. Hope you like it – the book is available both in ebook and paperback versions, in Amazon.

Cheers,

Fernando


Partida

Una gota de sudor le corrió por el espinazo con los gélidos y dolorosos pasos de un glaciar. Su mundo se había reducido a aquella pantalla. A aquel dígito. Físicamente, permanecía completamente estático. Ni un músculo se movía aparte del tempestuoso latido… solo aquella gota que reptaba acompasadamente por su espinazo. Sin embargo, su mundo interior se agitaba frenéticamente. Colapsaba. Con las pupilas completamente dilatadas, miraba… No lo entendía. No lo comprendía. No lo aceptaba… y no lo iba a tolerar más. No podía dejar de mirar. Pero no… no más números. No más de esa computadora… no, no más computadoras. No más de ese laboratorio… no, no más laboratorios. No más aire acondicionado, no, no más atmósferas artificiales. No más luces blanquecinas. No más. Su amígdala explotó, enviando un mensaje de pánico que secuestraba su corteza cerebral, extorsionándolo, controlándolo, dirigiéndole, exigiéndole no pensar, despeñándose en un binomio huir-pelear. Vértigo… Sintió el vello levantándose en sus brazos. Sus manos crisparse. Quiso primero golpear el ordenador. Pero eso no arreglaría nada. Luego, mareo… Sus pies apuntaron por sí solos hacia la puerta de salida del laboratorio sin que él pudiera hacer nada. Las imágenes perdieron enfoque en sus ojos desmesuradamente abiertos. Vino casi un desmayo… Por un momento tuvo una idea al ver los cables de alimentación y los altos y sólidos bancos de computadores…. sí, un escape para toda esa angustia que lo había perseguido toda la vida. Esa angustia ahora resumida en una línea de un monitor escondido en el último piso de un búnker a las 2 de la mañana. Delirante, enloquecido, se levantó de la silla y cuando ya caminaba hacia el cable con la idea trenzándose en su mente, algo atrajo su mirada. Lo vio. Aquella revista o periódico abierto en una página… ¿aleatoria? No importaba eso. Sí, aquella imagen. Aquel sitio, aquel rincón. Calor. Playa. Selva. Mucho calor. El mar. Tomó entonces una decisión. Sol. No había marcha atrás. Calor. Nunca la hubo. Y partió.

FIN

Veinte Mil Leguas de Viaje Subversivo

LIBRO/BOOK: “En defensa de la ilustración” / “Enlightenment Now” por/by Steven Pinker

“El libro es fuerza, es valor, es poder, es alimento; antorcha del pensamiento y manantial del amor”. Rubén Darío. Poeta y periodista nicaragüense (1867-1916)

Hay un refrán que reza “quien encuentra un amigo encuentra un tesoro”. Creo que podemos hacer extensiva esa cita a ciertos libros y – por inclusión – a sus autores. Esto fue lo que me sucedió hace poco cuando, hojeando noticias en la app/revista digital (Flipboard, se la recomiendo) topé con una recomendación que hacía Bill Gates de un libro escrito por un caballero llamado Steven Pinker. El libro que recomienda Mr. Gates se titulaba “Los ángeles que llevamos dentro” (“The better angels of our nature”, título original en inglés). La recomendación del libro era tan elocuente, franca y efusiva que no pude menos que tomar nota y por alguna razón, decidí buscar el libro físico (papel) en vez del e-book (debo admitir que me debato siempre entre dos mundos, uno digital y uno físico. A veces dudo cuál será más “real”…). Pero bueno, la cuestión es que fuí a una librería local y pregunté por el mismo: la amable chica que me atendió me dijo que sí tenían el libro en cuestión y además uno más nuevo por el mismo autor: “En defensa de la ilustración”. Por razones casi inciertas (me parece recordar que pensé que su último libro debía exponer las ideas más novedosas y que también leí la contraportada), terminé comprando este último… y debo decir que no me arrepiento. Déjenme contarles a continuación.

El título completo del libro es “En defensa de la Ilustración: Por la razón, la ciencia, el humanismo y el progreso”: ¡Ambiciosa causa! Lo más encomiable es que, en mi humilde parecer, Mr. Pinker se sale con la suya y con argumentos, evidencia y una fina pluma hace la quijotada. Creo que solo un intelectual del calibre de Steven Pinker puede llevar a buen puerto un reto de esta magnitud. Valga anotar que este señor es un científico cognitivo, autor de varios otros libros que versan sobre el funcionamiento de la mente, el lenguaje, la naturaleza humana y otros temas “pesados” (ya le tengo puesto el ojo a varios). Es catedrático de psicología por la Universidad de Harvard, ganador de multitud de reconocimientos internacionales, conferencista, consejero de múltiples firmas, etc.

Pero bueno, volvamos al libro (como que no puedo concentrarme hoy, disculpe Ud…): el libro está estructurado en tres partes, comenzando con una introducción que presenta la estructura y tesis general del mismo, que no es otra que argumentar que la época actual (sí, el hoy por hoy) es el “mejor momento para estar vivo”. En otras palabras, el autor hace una apuesta estadística por el optimismo, arguyendo que el devenir histórico de la humanidad es más que exitoso y que particularmente durante las últimas décadas, desde un punto de vista estadístico y generalizado como especie que somos, hemos venido haciendo las cosas mejor y mejor. Pinker ciertamente no niega que hayan problemas y catástrofes en el mundo, pero nos brinda un nuevo y esperanzador enfoque…  Esto lo hace a través del cuerpo prinicipal o desarrollo del libro compuesto por 15 capítulos (copio el listado abajo para aquellos curiosos), cada uno dedicado a una dimensión de la existencia humana. En cada capítulo presenta información: evidencia, datos resumidos en forma de gráficos. Y es que aquí está la “salsa secreta” del asunto, el enfoque que mencionaba antes: en palabras del mismo autor, si queremos tener una visión objetiva de las cosas, necesitamos “contar” (en el sentido numérico, irnos a los datos). Lo hace a través de gráficos que permiten visualizar una perspectiva histórica de cada una de esas dimensiones. Veamos un par de ejemplos:

  • Paz: en estos tiempos en que los noticieros nos bombardean con imágenes de Siria y de las últimas bravuconadas de algunos gobernantes, una visión histórica de la cantidad de muertes en batallas desde 1945 a la fecha es simplemente esclarecedora: no hay una comparación vs conflictos como la I o II Guerra Mundial, Vietnam y otros conflictos menos conocidos. Una perspectiva histórica sobre los genocidios, refugiados y otros también le pone a uno una sonrisa en la cara: su reducción es evidente.
  • Calidad de vida: los gráficos que muestran la cantidad de horas laborales semanales (periodo desde 1870 al año 2000), edad de retiro, costo de la luz, cantidad de horas para adquirir un electrodoméstico, cantidad de horas libres semanales y otros son también aleccionadores. Cuando vemos las cosas con una perspectiva histórica, nos damos cuenta del inmenso progreso que hemos alcanzado como Humanidad.

El libro cierra con tres capítulos en los cuales hace una poderosa defensa en favor de la ciencia, el humanismo y la razón, causales maestros (según Pinker) detrás de todo el progreso que el libro detalla a través de esos 72 provocativos gráficos y sus más de 570 páginas. Ciertamente el libro ha tenido también sus detractores, incluyendo intelectuales de renombre que critican variedad de cosas (el enfoque “estadístico” del progreso que pone en segundo lugar al individuo, la proyección ad-infinitum del progreso que sugiere Pinker, la naturaleza cuasi-aleatoria de algunos eventos incluyendo los conflictos globales, etc. etc.) Sin embargo y a pesar de todo ello, le recomiendo encarecidamente este título: nos recuerda la importancia de mantener una perspectiva amplia, histórica y de especie. Soy un convencido que muchos de los problemas de la Humanidad pueden rastrearse hata una falta de perspectiva convertida en pavorosa miopía que nos encierra en el yo y el ahora. Pero fundamentalmente lo recomiendo por ser lo que es: una inyección de optimismo puro; algo que todos necesitamos (ahora sí, como individuos) tras ver el listado de sucesos y tragedias que proveen los noticieros. Noticieros que son precisamente la perspectiva inversa –  absolutamene cortoplacista, mundana, diaria y sesgada hacia el suceso y la tragedia. No sé Ud., pero prefiero ver el vaso medio lleno.

Gracias Mr. Pinker – le considero ahora mi amigo y desde  mi humilde esquina, compañero de armas (mejor dicho, de pluma).


ENGLISH VERSION

“Good friends, good books, and a sleepy conscience: this is the ideal life.” ― Mark Twain

There´s a saying (and a 1981 goofy movie!) that goes “Who finds a friend finds a treasure”. I think we can extrapolate that to certain books, and by extension, to their authors. That´s what happened quite recently to me when checking the digital-magazine app Flipboard (cool one, BTW) and I stumbled upon an article where Bill Gates recommended a book written by a gentleman named Steven Pinker. Gates´praise was directed toward a volume named “The better angels of our nature”. He was so eloquent, enthusiastic and sincere that I took a mental note and instead of going for the e-book, I asked for it at a local bookstore (I must admit that I balance like a pendulum between the digital and the physical world, sometimes wondering which is more “real”…). Ahem, anyway, the kind girl from the store confirmed the availability of the book and added that they also had in stock the newest one from the same author (guess which). For less than certain reasons (destiny?) I bought the last on… and I don’t repent at all. Let me tell you why.

The book’s complete title is “Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress”: now that is an ambitious cause! And, in my humble opinion, Mr. Pinker actually accomplishes at least a partial win. Only an intellectual mind with his background could dare to this quixotic feat. Steven Pinker is a cognitive scientist, author of several books on the nature of the human mind, language, human nature and other dauntless topics (I already have some in my “radar”). He is a professor from Harvard, winner of many international prizes and titles, speaker, etc.

But let´s get back to our topic: the book (seems I can´t focus today!). The book is comprised of three parts, including sort of an introduction where the volume structure and the general argument is presented. This core argument is that nowadays (yes – today) is by far the greatest time to be alive, since progress has been accumulating over centuries fueled by science, humanism and reason. Pinker does not denies the existence of problems and tragedies, but he provides us a new and refreshing “big picture”, statistical perspective. This is done along the body of the volume, through 15 chapters (below the table of contents for your benefit) each one devoted to a dimension of the human existence. And in every chapter, he presents info: evidence, data summarized in form of graphs showing humanity´s performance along decades. This is the “secret sauce” of the book, because in the author´s words, if we want to have objectivity in our judgement, we need to “count” (in the sense of a numerical count, say, statistics, data).  The graphics permit this in an easy-to-digest format. Let´s see a couple examples:

  • Peace: in these times where the news media almost literally bombard us with images from Syria and the latest bullying from a collection of world leaders, a historic vision of the quantity of deaths in battle from 1945 to this date is truly eye opening: there is simply no comparison between the recent years and the prior decades. Just think about WWI and II, Vietnam and other. A historic review on genocides, refugee crisis and other related items are also capable of putting a smile on your face – its dropping, seriously dropping. And that is a good thing.
  • Quality of Life: the charts depicting the quantity of work hours per week from 1870-2000, retirement age, electricity cost, amount of work hours needed to buy house appliances and other are also enlightening. The historic perspective is indeed a motivational thrust for anyone.

The book ends with three chapters devoted to a strong defense on science, humanism and reason, which are as per Pinker the reason behind our progress depicted through the 72 charts and 570 plus pages of the volume. Certainly, this title has also a list of detractors, including reputed intellectuals who criticize a variety of things including the statistical perspective that “forgets” the individual, the “ad-infinitum” POV on progress, the aleatory nature of some events mentioned as trends in the book, etc. Nonetheless and in spite of all that, I strongly recommend the book: I am a big fan of the historical, “big picture” view. I believe that many of Humanity´s problems can be traced to a staggering individualistic myopia locked in the “I” and “now”. But I fundamentally recommend it because of what it is: a shot of pure optimism; so much required after reading or watching the news. News that are, by definition, events biased toward tragedies and related: the other side of the coin. I don´t know about you, but I truly prefer to see the glass half-full.

Thanks, Steven Pinker: I now consider you as my friend and, with my humble help to the cause, brother in arms (I mean, in words).

Fernando

Bonus Material / Material adicional:

Book´s TOC / Tabla de Contenidos del libro:

  • Part I: Enlightenment. Dare to understand!
  • Entro, evo, info
  • Counter-enlightenments
  • Part II: Progress. Progressophobia
  • Life
  • Health
  • Sustenance
  • Wealth
  • Inequality
  • The environment
  • Peace
  • Safety
  • Terrorism
  • Democracy
  • Equal rights
  • Knowledge
  • Quality of life
  • Happiness
  • Existential threats
  • The future of progress
  • Part III: Reason, science, and humanism. Reason
  • Science
  • Humanism.

Consigue tu ejemplar en Amazon: click aquí

About Steven Pinker: click here and here.

Photo by Nicole Honeywill on Unsplash

Un mundo distribuido: la Tercera Revolución Industrial (libro)

La lectura del libro “The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World” (Rifkin, 2013) conduce a una serie de reflexiones sobre el mundo que nos espera a 30 años plazo y su impacto en el contexto costarricense. Por “mundo distribuido” entiéndase un mundo interconectado en todas sus dimensiones: una verdadera red de redes que fomenta la descentralización, la multiplicidad y el compartir y colaborar. La expresión anterior invita inmediatamente a pensar en internet, pero hay otros factores a considerar. Rifkin propone cinco pilares para la 3ra Revolución Industrial: 1. El paso a energías renovables 2. La transformación de todos los inmuebles en plantas de producción eléctrica 3. La popularización de sistemas avanzados de almacenamiento de energía 4. La transformación de los sistemas de distribución de energía en sistemas inteligentes (una “internet de la energía”) y 5. La transición de la flota vehicular de los combustibles fósiles a electricidad y otras energías alternativas.

Según Rifkin, las revoluciones industriales suceden cuando se enlazan avances en telecomunicaciones junto con avances en la energía: la transformación de una sola de ellas no es suficiente. La 1ra Revolución Industrial vino de la mano de la imprenta unida a la máquina de vapor. La 2da Revolución Industrial nació de la convergencia de la tecnología radioeléctrica y el motor de combustión interna. La 3ra Revolución Industrial – y con ella, el salto evolutivo hacia un nuevo mundo más sano y próspero – acaecerá cuando se acople a la ya envolvente y avanzada informática un nuevo modelo energético: un modelo distribuido y sostenible. Esto derivará en una verdadera transformación económica, política, social y ambiental a nivel planetario, veamos:

El nuevo modelo de manejo de la información (informática y telecomunicaciones) está en franco apogeo, con tendencias como las redes sociales, la incipiente Internet de las Cosas, Big Data y otros avances. Enfoquémonos en la menos desarrollada faceta de la energía. El poderoso “lobby” de las titánicas compañías eléctricas y petroleras ha entorpecido – y entorpece aún – la marcha natural de este proceso. Con todo y todo, comienza a despuntar la nueva era: la era de la energía distribuida. La energía solar para autoconsumo es ya una realidad: los paneles y calentadores solares son cada vez más accesibles y se trabaja activamente en la reglamentación correspondiente (inclusive en nuestro país). Hace poco se alcanzó un nuevo hito de la mano de Elon Musk y TESLA: la batería “Powerwall” es el primero de una nueva generación de artefactos que permitirán almacenar y utilizar energía de manera inteligente en cada inmueble del planeta, salvando así el “astronómico” escollo de carecer de luz solar por las noches .

¿Qué podemos deducir de todo esto a la luz del contexto costarricense? A mi parecer, en primera instancia, si el Estado costarricense sigue aferrado al pasado, iremos “como el cangrejo”. Una empresa como RECOPE debería estar pensando en cómo adaptarse a un mundo cada vez menos dependiente de los combustibles fósiles. Deberían trabajar en convertirse en una entidad que apoye el uso de combustibles alternativos; así como en crear una red de carga para una flota vehicular eléctrica y auto-pilotada. El ICE por su parte debería estar pensando en cómo transformarse en un gigantesco “router” o “carrier inteligente” de electricidad, sirviendo como director de orquesta en un país con generación y almacenamiento eléctrico masivamente distribuido. El Estado como un todo debería apuntar hacia una visión a futuro congruente con esta nueva era

Y es que además de esperanzador, es asunto de supervivencia el pensar a largo plazo. Plataformas como Kiva, House-Exchange, Couch-Surfing, SharingNL y tendencias como el crowdfunding y los MOOCs son solo ejemplos muy incipientes del despuntar de una nueva era. Este es el futuro y no se detendrá, por mucho que se opongan todas las corporaciones y sindicatos del mundo. Sus esfuerzos podrán ralentizar el proceso, más los días de los combustibles fósiles y los modelos puramente verticales están contados: intentar detenerlo será tan inútil como el esfuerzo de los medios tradicionales (p. ej., casas editoriales) por destruir el nuevo modelo, “online” y “a la carta”, de distribución y consumo de libros, información y entretenimiento. Vamos hacia un mundo más lateralizado y distribuido. La Tercera Revolución Industrial cambiará para siempre el mundo: bien haríamos como país en abrazar estas nuevas tendencias y ponernos a tono con los tiempos, en vez de estar defendiendo ciega y egoístamente feudos y gollerías.